![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/8\/15\/9\/49\/16\/924446\/admin.center-file-1-32-1660528156.631.gif\")
<\/p>\n\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u060c \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0648\u0646 \"\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0648\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0632\u0631\u0642\" \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u0646\u0627\u0642 \u0639\u0627\u062c\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645. \u0641\u064a \"\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \"\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0643\u0629\" \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u0634\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062d\u0642\u0642\u062a \u0645\u062d\u0641\u0638\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0646\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 60\/40 \u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 -34.41 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a 12 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2022\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0633\u0648\u0623 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0646\u0630 100 \u0639\u0627\u0645. \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0641\u0638\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 25% \u0646\u0642\u062f\u064b\u0627\/ \u0633\u0644\u0639\u064b\u0627\/ \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645\u064b\u0627\/ \u0633\u0646\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0644\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0633\u0648\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f -11.9%\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0633\u0648\u0623 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0646\u0630 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2008.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) have fallen from around 4,800 points to the 3,500 point range this year. Whenever the market hits a low, everyone expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to save the market, but this is not feasible now because inflation remains very high and stubborn, and the job market is still hot, showing no signs of recession or the need for a bailout. Although the market is currently somewhat oversold and investors have a lot of cash on hand, this only means that a “bear market rally” could occur at any time, and the ultimate low may not have arrived yet.<\/p>\n
![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/8\/15\/15\/50\/13\/4530019\/admin.center-file-1-32-1660549813.704.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Last Thursday (October 13th), the U.S. stock market's performance was astonishing, and it may also summarize the current predicament faced by the U.S. stock market.<\/p>\n
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The range of fluctuations in the S&P 500 index on that day was as high as 5.03%, which is the largest single-day fluctuation since March 18, 2020<\/strong>\u060c \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0630\u0628\u0630\u0628 7.221 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a 12 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0623\u062f\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u062f\u0648\u062b \u0642\u0637\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u062a\u0641\u0634\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621.<\/p>\n \u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062d\u062f\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0636\u0628\u0637 \u0648\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0646\u0648\u0646\u064a\u0629\u061f<\/p>\n \u0642\u0628\u0644 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\u0644\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u062f 7.21 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a 12 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a. \u0648\u0641\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0630\u0643\u0631\u0647 \u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u064a\u0644\u0631\u060c \u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633 \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0628\u062d\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 Gain Capital Group.<\/p>\n \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0646\u0627\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0629 FedWatch \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0628\u0648\u0631\u0635\u0629 \u0634\u064a\u0643\u0627\u063a\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u064a\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0642\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0622\u062c\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u064a\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 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\u0627\u0644\u0641\u064a\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0643\u0641\u0627\u062d\u0647 \u0636\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u060c \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0631\u0641\u0639 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0642\u0644 \u0639\u0646 150 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0628\u062d\u0644\u0648\u0644 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645.<\/p>\n \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0623\u0634\u0647\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0646\u064a\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639\u060c \u0642\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0628\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u064a\u0627\u0626\u0633. \u0648\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0646\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0632\u0627\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062f\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0646\u062d\u0648 20 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u060c \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0631\u0627\u064b \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0644\u0647 \u0645\u0646\u0630 15 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646\u062f 4.501 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a 12 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a\u061b \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u062a \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0646\u062d\u0648 31 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a 12 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u062a\u062a\u0627\u062d.<\/p>\n On the evening of October 13th (last Thursday) at 23:00 Beijing time, the market unexpectedly rebounded. The three major US stock indices all saw a single-day increase of more than 2%, with the S&P 500 experiencing a daily fluctuation of over 5%. The energy, technology, and financial sectors led the gains. “One possible reason is the automatic triggering of buying orders near the 200-week moving average,” said a foreign investment bank's prime brokerage business trader to me. After all, this year, the S&P 500 has seen a decline of nearly 25%, with a drop of nearly 10% just in September. The stock index has retreated from above 4,800 points to the 3,600 point range.<\/p>\n However, by last Friday (October 14th), the 2% rebound was completely given back. The S&P 500 fell by 2.37% on that day, returning to the 3,500 range, closing at 3,583.07 points. This confirmed that the rebound on Thursday (October 13th) was still a bear market rebound, and any significant rebound was quickly suppressed by the bears.<\/p>\n \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u0631 \u0623\u0646 \u0635\u0646\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0637 \u0642\u062f \u0633\u0631\u0651\u0639\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0635\u0627\u0641\u064a \u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0623\u0633\u0631\u0639 \u0648\u062a\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0630 \u0623\u0628\u0631\u064a\u0644\/\u0646\u064a\u0633\u0627\u0646. \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a\u060c \u0628\u062f\u0623 \u0645\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0639 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0634\u0648\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a. \u0639\u0627\u0646\u0649 \u0633\u0647\u0645 Tesla\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0644\u062f\u0649 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0632\u0626\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0624\u062e\u0631\u064b\u0627\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 7.51 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a 12 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u0641\u064a 14 \u0623\u0643\u062a\u0648\u0628\u0631\u060c \u0644\u064a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0645\u0648\u0642\u0641\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u062d\u0631\u062c\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u0647\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u0646\u064a \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644. \u0645\u0646\u0630 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2019\u060c \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0633\u0647\u0645 Tesla \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0642\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0632\u0626\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0627\u0641\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0628\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 43%.<\/p>\n Currently, there is a significant concern that Tesla, this “big guy,” may lead to a collapse in the NASDAQ. According to Wind data, Tesla's sales in Europe in September were only 10,000 vehicles, with a clear slowdown in consumption growth, and a “cliff-like” drop in year-on-year growth.<\/p>\n Therefore, overall, the market's concern about the decline in demand for Tesla is not unfounded. Moreover, looking at the current global situation, the economic downturn has led investors to question whether the strong demand for the automotive market (especially Tesla) can continue. After Tesla announced its third-quarter delivery volume that fell short of expectations, Morgan Stanley analysts' optimism for the car company cooled, and they lowered their delivery volume expectations and target stock price for Tesla for this year and next year.<\/p>\n In addition to Tesla's own issues, the attitude of Tesla's spiritual leader – Elon Musk – is also a point that the market pays great attention to Tesla's stock price. For many investors, Musk's focus on Tesla is very valuable.<\/p>\n \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0648\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u064a\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0646\u062a \u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u064a\u062a\u0631 \u0641\u062c\u0623\u0629 \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u0633\u0643 \u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0641\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0627\u0630 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0627\u0630 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u064a\u062a\u0631 \u0628\u0633\u0639\u0631 1 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u064854.2 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u064854.2 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u0644\u0644\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f (\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 1 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u064844 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a). \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u0633\u0643 \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0636\u0637\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u0639 \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u062a\u0633\u0644\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0645\u062a\u0644\u0643\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0644\u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0632\u0645\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0627\u0630 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u064a\u062a\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u062e\u0637\u0631 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0642\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647\u0647 \u062a\u0633\u0644\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644.<\/p>\n Will Tesla further collapse the US stock market? In terms of total market value, Tesla's highest market value is $186.1 billion, once ranking as the top five in the Nasdaq market value (second only to Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google). In terms of industry status, Tesla is still the leader in the automotive industry, with a market value of about three times that of Toyota (second place) and more than 14 times that of General Motors (third place).<\/p>\n Currently, the year-end target prices given by major investment banks are around 3600. However, if a bear market scenario really occurs, Goldman Sachs estimates that the S&P 500 will fall to 3150 points, while Bank of America warns that it could fall to 3020 points.<\/p>\n \u0644\u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0633\u0627\u0631\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0628\u0637 \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 3900 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0642\u062a \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0646 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 3600 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629\u060c \u0628\u062f\u0623\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u064a\u062f\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u062a\u0634\u062a\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0644 \u062a\u0631\u062a\u062c\u0641 \u0648\u062a\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f\u061f \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0637\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u064a\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0644\u064a (\u0623\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u0642\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0642\u0648\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0648\u0642\u0641 \u0645\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u0621 \u0641\u064a \u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629) \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n The valuation of U.S. stocks is inversely proportional to the interest rate level. As the interest rate continues to exceed the market's previous assumptions, the valuation is also continuously compressed. Mainstream institutions predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a level of 4.6% to 4.8% next year. The interest rate has already risen by 325 basis points this year.<\/p>\n \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0642\u0637\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u0629\u060c \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u064a\u0623\u0645\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0637\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u064a\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0628\u062e\u0641\u0636 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0644\u0625\u0646\u0642\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0646 \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0645\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u063a\u0627\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n So, what are the indicators of the Federal Reserve's surrender based on historical data? Bank of America believes that the current key labor market and ISM manufacturing index are not weak enough; credit spreads have not reached extreme values either. The level of macro and market pain has not yet reached the point where the Federal Reserve will yield.<\/p>\n UBS also believes that there is still a way to go before the peak of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. In August, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) in the United States rose by 0.6% month-on-month, bringing the year-on-year growth rate to a higher-than-expected 4.9%. “We continue to believe that before considering a shift in stance, the Federal Reserve needs to see clear signs of a decline in U.S. inflation (i.e., core PCE falling by at least 0.2% month-on-month or lower for at least three months) and signs of a cooling labor market. The September non-farm employment report shows that the U.S. labor market is still tight.”<\/p>\n \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0639\u060c \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u064a\u062f \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0646 \u0634\u0647\u0631\u064a \u0646\u0648\u0641\u0645\u0628\u0631 \u0648\u062f\u064a\u0633\u0645\u0628\u0631 \u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n \u062a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0634\u0647\u0631\u064a \u0646\u0648\u0641\u0645\u0628\u0631\/\u062a\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0648\u062f\u064a\u0633\u0645\u0628\u0631\/\u0643\u0627\u0646\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u060c \u0628\u0644\u063a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f \u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e\u064a\u064b\u0627 2.1%\u060c \u0648\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0628\u062d \u0625\u0644\u0649 71% \u0645\u0646\u0630 \u0639\u0627\u0645 1985. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0642\u062a\u0631\u0628 \"\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0633\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627 \u0643\u0644\u0648\u0632\".<\/p>\n \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0642\u062f \u064a\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0639 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0644\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644. \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633 \u0628\u0627\u064a\u062f\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \"\u0642\u0627\u0646\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u062e\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 2022\" \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062f\u062e\u0644 \u062d\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630\u060c \u062c\u0630\u0628\u062a \u0636\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d\u0629 \u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0646\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0647\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645. \u0648\u064a\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0636\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0647\u0644\u0627\u0643 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647\u0627 11 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a 12 \u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u064a\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0628\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0648\u062a\u0634\u062c\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629\u060c \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621. \u0648\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0633\u062a\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0646\u0641\u064a\u0630 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0639\u0627\u0645 2023 \u0644\u062a\u062c\u0646\u0628 \u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0629.<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs' research shows that the total amount of buybacks in the past two months has reached as high as $190 billion, which is equivalent to $4.5 billion per day, clearly accelerating, and the pace after November is expected to be around $5 billion per day.<\/p>\n \u0641\u064a \u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 21 \u0623\u0643\u062a\u0648\u0628\u0631\/\u062a\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 2022\u060c \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0633\u062a\u0646\u062a\u0647\u064a \u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d\u064a\u062a\u0647\u0627\u060c \u0628\u0645\u0628\u0644\u063a \u064a\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 $1.7 \u062a\u0631\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u062f\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u0642\u062f \u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0645\u0624\u0642\u062a\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n Of course, the above factors may still only lead to a “bear market rebound” for the U.S. stock market, and the ultimate essence remains a bear market. The key for the future still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy and earnings. October is still a window period for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes (the next rate hike is on November 3), so the market will pay more attention to the earnings season. Earnings reports for U.S. bank stocks have already begun to be released, including giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Bank of America. Earnings reports for technology stocks will also be released successively.<\/p>\n \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0632\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0635\u062f\u0631 \u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629<\/strong>. If the inflation level continues to stay high without a significant decline, the next step for the US is to increase interest rates by a large margin. Some opinions also mention that the current overnight interest rate in the US is 3.5%, and the yield of one-year financial products is 4.5%, which is expected to rise in the future. This is already higher than the dividend yield of the US stock market. The current dividend yield of the S&P 500 is 1.6%, and even with an annual buyback rate of about 2.5% (buyback funds account for a certain proportion of the market value), it is still lower than the current risk-free rate.<\/p>\n \u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643, \u0633\u064a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636<\/strong>. \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062f\u0629 \u0633\u062a\u0629 \u0623\u0634\u0647\u0631 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0644 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0641 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639. \u0648\u0628\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a\u060c \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u064a \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0629 \u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0627\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0631\u0635\u0629 \u0622\u062e\u0630\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636. \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0628\u0627\u062d\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u062a\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639 \u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 \u0633\u064a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629<\/strong>.<\/p>\n This year, global investors who are “black and blue” urgently need a hug. In the brutal American “battlefield”, the classic […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37712,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fashion-and-design"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37713\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/legacy.vertu.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37713"}],"curies":[{"name":"\u0648\u0648\u0631\u062f\u0628\u0631\u064a\u0633","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\u0639\u0646\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0628\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629<\/h2>\n
![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/9\/9\/18\/15\/38\/8534831\/admin.center-file-1-32-1662718538.928.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/9\/9\/18\/15\/38\/1851907\/admin.center-file-1-32-1662718538.93.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/8\/15\/13\/52\/45\/183340\/admin.center-file-1-32-1660542765.99.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/9\/7\/16\/39\/40\/550901\/admin.center-file-1-32-1662539980.134.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/10\/9\/15\/0\/12\/20071183\/admin.center-file-1-32-1665298812.346.png\")
<\/p>\nIt's too early for the Fed to turn<\/h2>\n
![\"\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629\"](\"https:\/\/vertu-glass.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\/\/2022\/8\/23\/10\/6\/58\/2970158\/admin.center-file-1-32-1661220418.946.jpg\")
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"